S&P 500 Weekly Review June 30 – July 3

The S&P 500 weekly is showing another close above the  upper Keltner line. Until sustained weakness is shown, the weekly outlook remains bullish.

As mentioned in the monthly review, the opening range for the second half of the year is being established. It would be surprising if the market closed above the 6 month opening range in December, however, the market has continued upwards despite all the bearish warnings that have come on each dip.

For the few readers out there, I hope you all have a profitable year and a Happy 4th.

The Internet and the Bear

Bad news sells much better than good news. It seems like noise that portends to doom gets much more press and acknowledgement than good news. Seeing this, I’ve been tracking an individual I’ve dubbed Dr. Doom for about a year now. The following is a daily chart of the S&P 500 [blue] and days when he’s posted in red.

Keep in mind all his posts are bearish. He seems to post whenever conditions are overbought or an oscillator goes on a sell due to some weakness. However, the market has been pretty resilient since 2013. My guess is whatever oscillator Dr. Doom is looking at is way overbought at the moment.

By default, being a perma-bear is much harder than a perma-bull due to the difficulty of picking tops versus bottoms. Seeing this, I can see how anyone new [or even experienced] to trading can get run over much more often trying to pick tops instead of bottoms.

I don’t have any useful conclusions on fading Dr. Doom, except that this person’s sentiment turns bearish extremely quickly.

 

Analysis of the S&P 500