2016 predictions for bull markets remain the same, just different price targets.
US Dollar – 102 was tested this year on DX futures and has held above 2015 highs near 100. If support holds near 100, I suspect a LT rally in the dollar to ensue, testing 106.
US Stock Market – The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 continue to look bullish and have all broken out on monthly charts. Whether the breakout and rally continues remains to be seen. Holding above the following price levels could be a sign of a bullish continuation.
- S&P 500 – 2174
- Dow Jones Industrial – 19081
- NASDAQ 100 – 4722
6M – The Mexican Peso futures have been in a sustained decline since 2014
The S&P 500 weekly is showing another close in the upper Keltner channel.
The weekly outlook remains neutral to bullish.
On a six month opening range basis, the S&P 500 closed inside the opening range from July. A neutral to bearish close for the six month period.
On a yearly basis, the S&P 500 did not close above the opening price of the year, and did not close above 2014’s high. On a yearly basis, the close looked neutral to bullish.
Overall, the whole year was a consolidation in a range with neither highs being bought nor lows being sold. 2134 and 1867 will be levels that should be observed carefully in 2016 for signs of a rally or sell off.
US Dollar – Despite a crowded long trade and a range bound year, the US Dollar has yet to show signs of sustained weakness. A continuation of the rally from 2014 is probable. I expect 102 to be tested next year.
US Stock Market – The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 all show weakening trends but has yet to show sustained selling that would break the bullish trend of the past four years. A change in trend would require a monthly close beneath the following levels:
- S&P 500 – 2031(-30 pts)
- Dow Jones Industrial – 17368(-312 pts)
- NASDAQ 100 – 4280(-391 pts)
Oil – Crude is still in bear market and has yet to bottom. As long as the US Dollar stays in a bull market, oil will continue to show weakness.
Gold – Gold remains in a bear market. As long as the US Dollar remains in a bull market, gold will continue to decline.
US Dollar – DX futures continue to rise. Demand for USD has only gotten stronger this year and price has exceeded previous highs in 2009. A close above 90 in the H5 contract is a very bullish sign.
US Stock Market – The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 all exhibit strong bullish trends that have yet to break in the past 3 years. A change in trend would require a monthly close beneath the following levels:
- S&P 500 – 1728 (-360 pts)
- Dow Jones Industrial – 15378 (-2675 pts)
- NASDAQ 100 – 3361 (-953 pts)
Oil – Crude looks like it’s going to retest the 2009 lows near 33.
Gold – Despite my username, gold has yet to mount a rally that’s lasted more than six months. I think that as long as the US Dollar remains in a bull market, gold will continue to decline.