Predictions for 2016

Bull Markets

US Dollar – Despite a crowded long trade and a range bound year, the US Dollar has yet to show signs of sustained weakness. A continuation of the rally from 2014 is probable. I expect 102 to be tested next year.

US Stock Market – The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and  NASDAQ 100 all show weakening trends but has yet to show sustained selling that would break the bullish trend of the past four years. A change in trend would require a monthly close beneath the following levels:

  • S&P 500 – 2031(-30 pts)
  • Dow Jones Industrial – 17368(-312 pts)
  • NASDAQ 100 – 4280(-391 pts)

Bear Markets

Oil – Crude is still in bear market and has yet to bottom. As long as the US Dollar stays in a bull market, oil will continue to show weakness.

Gold – Gold remains in a bear market. As long as the US Dollar remains in a bull market, gold will continue to decline.