The S&P 500 monthly continues to show a consolidation in the upper Keltner channel and has yet to close above or below August’s trading range.
The monthly outlook is neutral to bullish.
Monthly Archives: December 2015
Predictions for 2016
Bull Markets
US Dollar – Despite a crowded long trade and a range bound year, the US Dollar has yet to show signs of sustained weakness. A continuation of the rally from 2014 is probable. I expect 102 to be tested next year.
US Stock Market – The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 all show weakening trends but has yet to show sustained selling that would break the bullish trend of the past four years. A change in trend would require a monthly close beneath the following levels:
- S&P 500 – 2031(-30 pts)
- Dow Jones Industrial – 17368(-312 pts)
- NASDAQ 100 – 4280(-391 pts)
Bear Markets
Oil – Crude is still in bear market and has yet to bottom. As long as the US Dollar stays in a bull market, oil will continue to show weakness.
Gold – Gold remains in a bear market. As long as the US Dollar remains in a bull market, gold will continue to decline.
S&P 500 Weekly Review December 14 – 18
The S&P 500 weekly is showing another close in the lower Keltner channel. A selloff may retest the lower Keltner line at 1919.
The weekly outlook remains neutral to bearish.
S&P 500 Weekly Review December 7 – 11
The S&P 500 weekly is showing a close in the lower Keltner channel. If the market continues to sell off, the index may retest 1926, while a rally could retest highs again near 2090.
The weekly outlook is neutral to bearish.
S&P 500 Weekly Review November 30 – December 4
The S&P 500 weekly is showing another close in the upper Keltner channel. The weekly outlook remains neutral to bullish.