The S&P 500 monthly continues to show a consolidation in the upper Keltner channel and has yet to close above or below August’s trading range.
The monthly outlook is neutral to bullish.
US Dollar – Despite a crowded long trade and a range bound year, the US Dollar has yet to show signs of sustained weakness. A continuation of the rally from 2014 is probable. I expect 102 to be tested next year.
US Stock Market – The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 all show weakening trends but has yet to show sustained selling that would break the bullish trend of the past four years. A change in trend would require a monthly close beneath the following levels:
Oil – Crude is still in bear market and has yet to bottom. As long as the US Dollar stays in a bull market, oil will continue to show weakness.
Gold – Gold remains in a bear market. As long as the US Dollar remains in a bull market, gold will continue to decline.